Category: Statistics

Twitter Predicts Box Office Revenue

In the first paper I’ve seen using social media (like Twitter) to tie to a real world monetary outcome, Asur and Huberman (2010) at the Social Computing Labs in Palo Alto, CA use Twitter activity to predict film box office sales. Taking all 24 major film releases between November 2009 and January 2010, the number of tweets on new films predict sales even better than the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), an online prediction game (think fantasy football for film success) that is described as the “gold standard” for predicting box office revenues.